U.S. Retail Data Drags Down Copper Prices; Volatile Pattern Fails to Conceal Bottom Resilience [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

Published: Feb 17, 2025 08:49

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[US Retail Data Drags Copper Prices; Volatility Pattern Fails to Conceal Bottom Resilience] Macro side, US January retail sales month-on-month recorded -0.9%, marking the largest decline since January 2024. The disappointing "scary data" heightened concerns over a sharp economic slowdown, suppressing both the US dollar index and copper prices.

SMM February 17 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,614.5/mt, initially rose slightly to a high of $9,684.5/mt, then declined all the way to a low of $9,448.5/mt near the session's end, followed by range-bound trading, and finally closed at $9,465/mt, down 0.12%. Trading volume reached 36,000 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2503 contract opened at 78,440 yuan/mt, hit a high of 78,580 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 76,980 yuan/mt near the session's end, followed by range-bound trading, and finally closed at 77,120 yuan/mt, down 0.89%. Trading volume reached 54,000 lots, and open interest stood at 178,000 lots. Macro side, the US January retail sales month-on-month recorded -0.9%, marking the largest decline since January 2024. The worse-than-expected "scary data" heightened concerns over a sharp economic slowdown, weighing on both the US dollar index and copper prices. Fundamentally, unreported inventory at copper rod enterprises has slightly decreased, but copper price centers remain elevated. If copper prices do not show a significant decline in the short term, downstream stocking sentiment is expected to remain weak, focusing on low-priced sources. In summary, although domestic downstream purchasing sentiment remains weak, production is still recovering. With the upcoming Two Sessions in China, copper prices are expected to have bottom support.

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